One of the most important areas of non-graduate jobs is tradespeople. Herein lies a dilemma and one of the reasons why we are lagging in growth. Black market. Most traders (my guesstimate) want cash payments clearly with only one objective- to cheat the nation by not declaring full earnings to the inland revenue.
This also leads to another problem- that of second homes. Many tradespeople I know have second and indeed third homes. This then inflates the housing market making it impossible for young people to have affordable housing.
A lot of these issues are interconnected and I believe that Andy is the perfect person to take these head on, as he comes into government with very little baggage.
In addition to this, the problem that many economists don’t talk about, is the anti immigrant sentiment not only in the country but also at the highest echelons of the Home Office. As a result, those that can will (and are) relocate elsewhere and some even to their own home countries as some of them are beginning to thrive. Others will be reluctant to come here. Even the second and third generation young people born here have options of living somewhere that is welcoming and safe.
With falling birth rates any future estimates of economic growth are likely to be negative. Growth aside, the happiness of a nation depends on how easily it assimilates and celebrates newcomers.
You are too young to know the fear we lived through in the seventies. Such vile sentiments are quite openly expressed in society these days. Educated black and brown people may not yet feel this but talk to the low paid (but in vital services) and they will tell you how afraid they are of the future. If it can happen in USA it can happen here.
We need a leader who must extol the positives of immigration and vehemently oppose the right wingers. Without this, I am afraid, like Brexit, we will get a massive hit to our economic and social wellbeing. Keeping Mahmood as the Home Secretary will send a signal to the nation that we don’t care!
Great piece Jeevun. Let's explicitly and ambitiously weave the impact economy into the good local (non-grad) jobs agenda, because that will make the interfaces between work, public services, housing and dates/mates work much better too.
I broadly agree with your analysis, Jeevun. However, I think the 'London gets so much more transport spending than anywhere else moan is a little unfair. It's the most densely populated part of the UK which is what makes public transport viable. Of course it gets more than Yorkshire and the Humber, or the east of England, as it has the population of Scotland and Wales combined on a piece of land just 1.5% of their total size. It seems entirely reasonable that a city of 9m people would have a dense public transport system that, by the way, they mostly pay for themselves.
I guess Loughborough is a good place from which to view the problem.
I'm in Ashbourne, so very rural Derbyshire. We haven't had an East Midlands Mayor for long, and we haven't yet really placed her in our political world view. For us the County is a remote body, but neither it, the District nor the Mayor are seen as having real power. My hope is that with Burnham the Mayors will get real powers, and the new unitary authorities will act as proper decision making bodies. I am still amazed that Derbyshire has 11 district councils, structural inefficiency designed in at the start.
I do take issue with the non-graduate jobs. In my town they are the only ones that exist. Derby is starting to take off with the rail investment and Rolls Royce, but it still lacks that sense of style that you get when people break away from their home town and start to think for themselves. A small city/large town can take off it can attract people who value ideas and welcome innovation. That probably means graduates. I look across my county to the small town of Belper. It buzzes. A real variety of shops. Lots of pubs. What it does have as well is a high proportion of graduates. They make it all work and create a market where the non-graduates have plenty of opportunities.
And a day after I wrote that, the East Midlands takes the biggest hit in the savings needed to boost the defence budget. I don't trust the MoD to switch its focus from tanks and hi-spec aircraft, so I expect we shall end up with more money paid to America for products that they can't deliver. Maybe I'll be wrong, maybe we shall get something relevant to the next decade. I do like the idea of Storm Shadow Lite -the non US parts version. Perhaps, if the message has got through that the USA is not one of our allies, we may even spend the defence budget in this country, actually boosting the economy.
As an Australian over here I can’t help but think back to the GST settlement that sees the GST (Aussie VAT) split between the states to fund them. It can be politically contested but money provides the agency to run those states (regions) more effectively - this seems to be a big driver of the inequality here - a huge service delivery requirement for local government without the funding to match.
Thanks Jeevun for this excellent analysis.
One of the most important areas of non-graduate jobs is tradespeople. Herein lies a dilemma and one of the reasons why we are lagging in growth. Black market. Most traders (my guesstimate) want cash payments clearly with only one objective- to cheat the nation by not declaring full earnings to the inland revenue.
This also leads to another problem- that of second homes. Many tradespeople I know have second and indeed third homes. This then inflates the housing market making it impossible for young people to have affordable housing.
A lot of these issues are interconnected and I believe that Andy is the perfect person to take these head on, as he comes into government with very little baggage.
In addition to this, the problem that many economists don’t talk about, is the anti immigrant sentiment not only in the country but also at the highest echelons of the Home Office. As a result, those that can will (and are) relocate elsewhere and some even to their own home countries as some of them are beginning to thrive. Others will be reluctant to come here. Even the second and third generation young people born here have options of living somewhere that is welcoming and safe.
With falling birth rates any future estimates of economic growth are likely to be negative. Growth aside, the happiness of a nation depends on how easily it assimilates and celebrates newcomers.
You are too young to know the fear we lived through in the seventies. Such vile sentiments are quite openly expressed in society these days. Educated black and brown people may not yet feel this but talk to the low paid (but in vital services) and they will tell you how afraid they are of the future. If it can happen in USA it can happen here.
We need a leader who must extol the positives of immigration and vehemently oppose the right wingers. Without this, I am afraid, like Brexit, we will get a massive hit to our economic and social wellbeing. Keeping Mahmood as the Home Secretary will send a signal to the nation that we don’t care!
If more funds are to be distributed locally the incentives for corruption increase. There will be a need for the Audit Commission https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Audit_Commission_(United_Kingdom) to be brought back into existence.
Great piece Jeevun. Let's explicitly and ambitiously weave the impact economy into the good local (non-grad) jobs agenda, because that will make the interfaces between work, public services, housing and dates/mates work much better too.
I broadly agree with your analysis, Jeevun. However, I think the 'London gets so much more transport spending than anywhere else moan is a little unfair. It's the most densely populated part of the UK which is what makes public transport viable. Of course it gets more than Yorkshire and the Humber, or the east of England, as it has the population of Scotland and Wales combined on a piece of land just 1.5% of their total size. It seems entirely reasonable that a city of 9m people would have a dense public transport system that, by the way, they mostly pay for themselves.
I guess Loughborough is a good place from which to view the problem.
I'm in Ashbourne, so very rural Derbyshire. We haven't had an East Midlands Mayor for long, and we haven't yet really placed her in our political world view. For us the County is a remote body, but neither it, the District nor the Mayor are seen as having real power. My hope is that with Burnham the Mayors will get real powers, and the new unitary authorities will act as proper decision making bodies. I am still amazed that Derbyshire has 11 district councils, structural inefficiency designed in at the start.
I do take issue with the non-graduate jobs. In my town they are the only ones that exist. Derby is starting to take off with the rail investment and Rolls Royce, but it still lacks that sense of style that you get when people break away from their home town and start to think for themselves. A small city/large town can take off it can attract people who value ideas and welcome innovation. That probably means graduates. I look across my county to the small town of Belper. It buzzes. A real variety of shops. Lots of pubs. What it does have as well is a high proportion of graduates. They make it all work and create a market where the non-graduates have plenty of opportunities.
And a day after I wrote that, the East Midlands takes the biggest hit in the savings needed to boost the defence budget. I don't trust the MoD to switch its focus from tanks and hi-spec aircraft, so I expect we shall end up with more money paid to America for products that they can't deliver. Maybe I'll be wrong, maybe we shall get something relevant to the next decade. I do like the idea of Storm Shadow Lite -the non US parts version. Perhaps, if the message has got through that the USA is not one of our allies, we may even spend the defence budget in this country, actually boosting the economy.
Thanks for this piece Jeevun.
As an Australian over here I can’t help but think back to the GST settlement that sees the GST (Aussie VAT) split between the states to fund them. It can be politically contested but money provides the agency to run those states (regions) more effectively - this seems to be a big driver of the inequality here - a huge service delivery requirement for local government without the funding to match.
I also myself discussed Denmark’s local government settlement a while back as away to drive better outcomes if you have a minute to take a look - https://tynanbryant.substack.com/p/the-money?r=4wylcq&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web